Renaissance Capital's 2025 IPO outlook projects 155-195 IPOs raising $40-55B in proceeds next year. More striking than the proceeds is the sheer scale of companies preparing to list: the combined enterprise value of likely 2025-26 IPO candidates exceeds $200B, representing potentially the largest transfer of value from private to public markets in tech history. Unlike previous cycles, these aren't just story stocks – they're the companies that have been quietly building the infrastructure of our AI-driven future.
The New Model
Here's what most analyses miss: the extended private cycle hasn't just produced more mature companies – it's forged an entirely new category of tech company. One that combines the durability of traditional infrastructure plays with the growth dynamics of software.
When Stripe ($65B), Databricks ($43B), and CoreWeave ($23B) file their S-1s, they'll reveal a powerful combination: infrastructure-level moats with software-level margins. While private markets appeared dormant, these companies quietly devoured market share.
Built Different
Unlike the 2020-21 cohort, which relied primarily on multiple expansion, these companies focused on building sustainable unit economics. While their predecessors chased growth at all costs, this generation prioritized building defensible business models.
Consider the contrast: The typical 2021 tech IPO candidate went public with high growth rates (often 50%+ TTM revenue growth) but coupled with negative unit economics and transient tailwinds (driven by pandemic-era stimulus).
Today's pipeline includes companies like Databricks, with similar growth but positive unit economics and clear paths to profitability. CoreWeave built a $2B+ run rate infrastructure business during a period when public markets were closed to speculative tech. Chime emerged from the fintech winter with sustainable unit economics while its public peers struggled with the growth-to-profit transition.
The Timing Paradox
The current dynamic presents an interesting paradox: we have an exceptionally strong tech pipeline, but with a crucial difference – these companies don't actually need to go public. They've built sustainable economics in private markets. Public listing is a choice, not a necessity.
The first major tech IPOs of 2025 will set more than just pricing benchmarks – they'll determine whether this entire generation of tech leaders moves to public markets as a wave or a trickle. The companies are ready. The economics are proven. The dominoes are lined up.
Competitive Dynamics
The extended private runway has allowed these companies to evolve beyond products into full ecosystems. Databricks has transformed into essential infrastructure for enterprise AI. CoreWeave stands as one of the largest specialized AI computing platforms in private hands.
This ecosystem advantage manifests in their customer metrics. While the 2021 cohort emphasized customer acquisition rates, today's candidates show deep customer entrenchment through platform adoption and technical integration.
What Comes Next
The implications for public markets are significant. Like the survivors of the dot-com crash - Google, Salesforce, and others - these companies have been forged in a downturn. They've built sustainable businesses in private markets, and they're entering public markets on their own terms.
What's different this time isn't the trajectory - it's the scale. The extended private market cycle has allowed multiple category leaders to emerge simultaneously. They're not just IPO candidates; they're proven businesses ready to scale in public markets.
